Thursday, 07 August 2008
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WHITHER THE OBAMA CAMPAIGN? ADLAI STEVENSON, MICHAEL DUKAKIS, JOHN KERRY OR BILL CLINTON?
In the 1950’s, Democrat Adlai Stevenson, who had been the governor of Illinois, twice sought the presidency only to be defeated both times by Republican Dwight Eisenhower….While Stevenson was a very intelligent and successful candidate who was also well-financed, he was portrayed by the Eisenhower campaign (especially the dark grandfather of American negative politics, Richard Nixon) as an elitist and “an egghead” (coining that term….Stevenson was bald as well as being smart).
In 1988, Michael Dukakis, the governor of Massachusetts, enjoyed a huge lead over George Bush the first at this point in the campaign….However, Bush was able to divert the public’s attention away from the approaching recession and the disappearance of blue-collar assembly line jobs towards fluff like the pledge of allegiance and visits to a flag factory as well airing photos of Willie Horton, a black man incarcerated in Massachusetts, who had committed crimes on a work furlough plan….Dukakis appeared not to understand the stakes for which he was playing and adopted a high-minded approach refusing to take the low road….He overestimated the intelligence and fairness of the American people….Like Stevenson before him, he failed to fight fire with fire.
In 1992, America was suffering under a recession and George Bush the first had no answers….Along comes Bill Clinton who set up a war room and aggressively answered every attack against him and made a lot of his own….This approach did not adhere him to people within his own party during the primary season as he applied this approach to Democrats as well….However, it served him well in the general election as he won the presidency twice.
So when it comes to the campaign for the presidency, who is Barack Obama? Is he a Stevenson or a Dukakis who is above a fight and only looks for the good in other human beings or is he Clinton who only knows one way; attack?
This week we’ve seen John McCain scale new heights of ridiculousness with ads comparing Obama to Paris Hilton and The One from The Matrix films….It’s clear McCain has nothing to say because what he believes and what he wants to say has already been totally discredited by the disaster of the last eight years that is the Bush presidency….No one wants more wars or jobs disappearing or homes foreclosed on but the policies McCain will follow will give Americans all three so better to talk about nonsense….McCain is truly a mental pygmy and a phony but Obama makes the same mistake that some Democratic presidential candidates have made in the past if he refuses to get down and dirty at least a little bit.
One other thing that Clinton did well was triangulation….That is finding elements of your opponents platform that are popular and then adopting them as your own at the same time attacking elements of your opponents platform that are not popular….For example, Clinton embraced welfare reform but was effective in his support of social issues like abortion right and gay rights, issues most American support in a general way if not taken to the extreme.
I think Obama has shown some success in that area too….His recent statements on offshore drilling while appearing in the immediate as very cynical in the long run will help him very much in the center of the country as energy is already one of the top three issues of this campaign (along with the economy and foreign policy).
Of course, he can go too far the other direction….John Kerry had an excellent progressive voting record in the US Senate but the appearance of him running away from his record when campaigning for the presidency deeply hurt his image among voters….Kerry also made the same mistake Dukakis made….When the ads questioning his war hero status came out (and they are by far the sleaziest and most cowardly thing I have ever seen in a political campaign) he should have brought up the fact that George Bush Jr. was a draft dodger who refused to serve his country in a war he supported….The chicken hawk Republican who lets other people do the fighting for him while cheerleading a war is a disgusting image and Kerry should have exploited it.
Barack Obama proved one thing in the Democratic primary and that he is an excellent campaigner who thinks well on his feet….Something John McCain is not….Whether he can translate this into a presidential victory we will see….There are other issues at play here including race ….All I know is once the conventions are over and running mates are picked, he needs to start hitting McCain and hitting him hard.
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Comments (12)
Did you hear that someone from Florida, Mel Martinez may be the VP candidate for McCain? He is a hispanic...
Ok, I was reading over something interesting that you may find enlightening:-
[quote]Part 1 - In just 16 months:
Remember the election in 2006? Thought you might like to read the following:
A little over 16 MONTHS ago:
1) Consumer confidence stood at a 2 1/2 year high;
2) Regular gasoline sold for $2.19 a gallon;
3) The unemployment rate was 4.5%.
Since voting in a Democratic Congress in 2006 we have seen:
1) Consumer confidence plummet to the lowest point in over 75 years;
2) The cost of regular gasoline soar to over $4.50 a gallon;
3) Unemployment is up to 5% (a 10% increase);
4) American households have seen $2.3 trillion in equity value evaporate (stock and mutual fund losses);
5) Americans have seen their home equity drop by $1.2 trillion dollars;
6) 1% of American homes are in foreclosure.
America voted for change in 2006, and they got it!
Remember it is Congress that makes laws; not the President. He has to work with what's handed to him.
Quote of the Day........'My friends, we live in the greatest nation in the history of the world. I hope you'll join with me as we try to change it. ?? -- Barack Obama
Part 2 - Taxes:
Whether Democrat or a Republican you will find these statistics enlightening and amazing.
www.taxfoundation.org/publications/show/151.html
Taxes under Clinton 1999............................Taxes under Bush 2008
Single making 30K - tax $8,400.....................Single making 30K - tax $4,500
Single making 50K - tax $14,000...................Single making 50K - tax $12,500
Single making 75K - tax $23,250 ..................Single making 75K - tax $18,750
Married making 60K - tax $16,800.................Married making 60K- tax $9,000
Married making 75K - tax $21,000.................Married making 75K - tax $18,750
Married making 125K - tax $38,750...............Married making 125K - tax $31,250
Obama will return to the higher tax rates. It is amazing how many people that fall into the categories above think Bush is screwing them and Bill Clinton was the greatest President ever. If Obama is elected, he said he will repeal the Bush tax cuts and a good portion of the people that fall into the categories above can't wait for it to happen.
Secondly, Obama wants to take a great nation and turn it into a quasi-socialist nightmare. The Dems have this theory that people and companies who make money are evil and they want to punish them and that people who don't make money are 'disadvantaged' and they want to give them stuff. If they'd stop taking the money from those who have worked hard and made themselves wealthy, then those wealthy people could expand their businesses and hire...you guessed it - the poor people. The poor people could then become self-sufficient, and with a little effort maybe even become wealthy themselves. 'Trickle Down Economics' may have gotten a bad rap in the (liberal) media, but it works and it took us from the Carter era mess to the prosperity that Clinton falsely claimed credit for in less than a decade, and enabled us to topple the USSR, largely through economic pressure, at the same time. Obama has no real position that is not influenced by the latest polls. He has no real economic plan other then ripping the money from those fortunate enough to have more then others and giving it to those poor people. His health care plan is atrocious. He has the experience of a billygoat. Has the personality to match.
Thirdly, he's trying to open up the Strategic Oil Reserve to public use! It is such an irresponsible, short-term response to a strong Republican energy plan, it's ridiculous!
I'ts irresponsible because America is teetering on the brink of war with Iran. Yes, she is, so, Liberals, shut your traps before they open. We don't want to deplete our emergency oil supply when the world supply of oil is teetering in the balance.
For you older members (or more historically informed ones), remember the Oil Embargo back in the '70s? That's what we'll be facing if we release the stockpile now: we won't have the money when we need it. Sure, we'll pay less at the pump for 6 months (that's how long the stockpile will last), but what after that? Worse than where we started.[/quote]
Below are my own opinion,
People are yapping about how McCain is all like Bush, when he isn't. Bush is a hardcore conservative, while McCain on the other hand is barely a conservative...you could probably even call him a moderate.
Democrats said McCain relies on increased drilling for oil, even though McCain supports a mix of policies, including alternative energy sources.
A few points, KS….
1.) Mel Martinez is ineligible to be VP….He was born in Cuba and you have to be a native born citizen to be VP….That’s the law….I think you might mean Charlie Crist the Republican governor of Florida….However it is doubtful he would be chosen due to the fact Crist is alleged to be a homosexual which he has not admitted to….The persons most likely for VP these days on the rep side is Tim Pawlenty the governor of Minnesota or Mitt Romney (which I’ve blogged about before)
2.) Trickle-down economics work in the short-term only….Long term, they would bankrupt America Why?....Because America needs tax revenue to build roads, maintain schools and a whole host of other things not to mention foreign wars….In addition, America borrows large sums of money….Tax dollars on rich people and corporations pay down the resulting debt interest included….Last time, America had trickle down in the 1980’s, America created a huge debt for itself it took the fiscally sensible programs of Bill Clinton in the 1990’s to pay down.....Read an economist named John Kenneth Galbraith for more info on why Trickle Down doesn't work
3.) The detail left off that chart is how much rich people (over 125k as that is not really wealthy IMO as personal wealth how much money one gets to keep is largely determined by where in America people live for example California and New York have a very high cost of living) actually pay in taxes….It’s not as much as they should and there are many ways (incorporating oneself etc.) for rich people to get out of paying taxes.
4.) John McCain’s public statements are moderate but his senate voting record is conservative by any measure….One leading conservative organization reviewed McCain’s voting record over his whole 22 year senate career and gave him an 86 on a scale of 100….That’s conservative….His rhetoric doesn’t match his actions.
5.) Most of those dire details did exist prior to 2006 but the CBO (congressional budget office) fudged the details….The Democrats currently have have a one seat majority in the senate with two members (Nelson of Nebraska and Lieberman of Conneticut) who often vote with the Reps.….That’s hardly a majority that can get anything done.
George Bush has come close to bankrupting the country with his endless neo-con wars and mindless tax cuts on the richest part of the population and hopefully Obama will get the opportunity clean up his mess.
You haven't talked about the Strategic Oil Reserve which he is trying to open up. If I am not wrong, Reagan practiced trickle down economics and it worked.
Just adding on, there is also a small percentage of rich people. The majority are still around 125k per year, so George Bush's election was actually a blessing for these people as shown in the chart.
"Obama will return to the higher tax rates. It is amazing how many people that fall into the categories above think Bush is screwing them and Bill Clinton was the greatest President ever. If Obama is elected, he said he will repeal the Bush tax cuts and a good portion of the people that fall into the categories above can't wait for it to happen."
By the way, I would just like to say Universal Healthcare sucks. It takes off the competition and the hospitals will start slacking. Of course its good for the poor but the quality of the hospitals will go down as well.
Again
1.) Regarding trickle down economics, read #2 of my last response, the good effects are temporary only as America soon finds itself low on the money it needs....Galbraith called Trickle Down the horse and sparrow theory....The horse eats an apple and then goes to the bathroom if the sparrow is lucky it can find something to eat in the horse's dung....Reagan's trickle down economics almost bankrupted America and caused the recession of the early 1990's (which really hit California hard) by ringing up a trillion dollar debt that stymied job growth as well as creating a climate that allows big corporations to export jobs overseas without creating new jobs for those people thrown out of work....Clinton's tax plan in the 1990's helped give America a budget surplus which Bush squandered on nonsense like the Iraq War
2.) I don't think either Obama or McCain has much of a plan for the energy problem....At least, Obama seems willing to look at different options....He's not frozen in ideology like McCain....The truth is alternate energy research must be quadrupled....Oil will not last forever and may be depleted even in my lifetime.
3.)Not everybody's rich but the super rich are increasing by slight numbers and the poor or the working poor (one paycheck away from complete bankruptcy and disaster) have increased by even larger numbers....The middle class in the US is in the process of being wiped out....People expect goods and services from their government and they don't mind paying a little more in taxes for safe neighborhoods and well-maintained roads and quality schools....The problem is the rich don't pay their fair share of taxes in the US....Look at how much the super rich or for that matter big corporations pay and it is far less than they should.
4.) The bottom line is healthcare in the US is not like healthcare in Malaysia....It's extremely expensive....Private insurance is astronomical so you rely on your job to provide you with coverage....What happens if you lose your job?....I believe universal healthcare is not only a good idea I believe it is a right and Americans should demand it....The quality of healthcare issue is a seperate debate.
We have universal healthcare in Malaysia and trust me, it sucks. Maybe its just us malaysians that make it so horrible.
Anyway, I believe that the rich should not be robbed of their money because they too WORKED for it. Its no one's fault that they have a rich father or they are clever and made tons of money. Everyone can be rich if they want to. They just need to be more proactive and hardworking and stop being couch potatoes. I know alot of Americans are lazy, so thats probably why they are poor.
Its just the way it is. They are rich because they worked for it. End of story. Why must they be treated unfairly by the DEMOCRAT government?
That's just silly....As you work so shall you eat....A society composed of rich people and trickle dpown becomes like France before the revolution....Let them eat cake then off with their heads!
Its not silly. Its just logic. Rich people worked for their money as well. Its not their fault that everybody else can't do the same. Its not their fault that they have innovate ideas while others don't. They shouldn't be FORCED to share their wealth. Although it sounds selfish, but why must they give out money when they earned for it? In my opinion, everyone should be made to pay a same percentage of their income. For example, everyone pays 28% of their income to the Government as tax. If you are rich, then well, good. If you are poor, its just too bad.
Well sorry to sound insulting I have to tell you that argument is just idiotic....What you are talking about is called The Flat Tax by economists and not only will you cease the creation of new wealth(which is why a lot of people work hard in a capitalist society to begin with hoping to strike it rich in business etc.) as the tax burden will be so overwhelming to make up for what the rich aren't paying, you will soon have a revolution on your hands.
And not at all people earn their wealth, some are just lucky enough to be born into the right family....Not everyone is Bill Gates
KS,
That last post while very well researched was a bit off topic....If you re-write it without all the various attacks against Obama which I don't have time to check I will leave it.
But I really think all that is for a different thread...If you want to attack Obama post it somewhere else and then I will post John McCain's isues which are also quite serious.
Seriously, just type Why Obama cannot be president in google and all these come up....
I was just posting it to proof that ALL politicians lie and flip flop for their own gain, be it Senator Mccain or senator Obama or even Senator Clinton.
Heck, not only politicians lie and flip flop, even us normal citizens do so.
Sure but politicians run on a party platform and ,ignoring the individual politicians, the platform of the Democratic party is IMO a better path for America to follow ending the neo-conservative wars and bring back fiscal sanity and a budget surplus instead of debt....There are third parties whose platforms (and candidates) are even better but they don't have a chance of winning.